Day 1 – Saturday, 5 December    15.30 - 17.00    Room: 253

Up and down the scales of time and place: Integrating global trends and local decisions to make the world more food-secure by 2050

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Hosts:  International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)

Achieving food security is one of the essential components of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This session aims to raise awareness and understanding of the link between climate change and economic policies related to poverty, nutrition and agricultural development, all of which will be a critical part of the discussions at the UNFCCC climate negotiations.

A thorough use of accurate data, model outputs and alternative scenarios for the formulation of climate change policies, is essential to combat climate change effectively and transition towards resilient, low-carbon societies and economies.

If ‘business-as-usual’ farming continues under climate change conditions, scenarios project slower yield growth and rising food prices by 2050. Underdeveloped economic regions where food security is already problematic and populations are more vulnerable to shocks will suffer most.

Big data for big goals: @ifpri tackling #foodsecurity at #GLFCOP21

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Without substantial measures that address the challenges caused by increasing temperatures and frequencies of extreme weather events, losses in crop and livestock productivity are expected to reduce the rate of gain from technological and management improvements. Furthermore, climate change is not only threatening the productivity of the world’s agricultural systems but it also carries consequences for a wide range of ecosystem services and people’s resilience.

One approach to create a responsive institutional environment is to establish decision-support mechanisms for agricultural, climate change, and food security policies that use new data that is easy to update, modelling output that can be customized, and innovative scenario assessment.

Modelling environments must be designed to integrate seamlessly in the national governments’ development process such as planning, project evaluation, and investment programming.

This Discussion Forum will draw on new research activities to analyze regional and country policy options that promote a healthy growth of the agricultural sector in a changing climate. The economic implications of changing climate conditions will be evaluated using examples form developing countries including the Philippines, Colombia and Vietnam.

The purpose of the session is to advance the discussion among researchers and policy- and decision-makers on research outputs, scale of analysis (temporal and geographical), and analytical tools that can provide truly actionable information.

A round of presentations will highlight new research findings and insights. Invited panelists with hands-on experience in policy-making will give their perspectives based on the specific challenges faced by their countries. An open discussion will follow.

Key questions addressed

  1. What are the projected impacts of climate change and socio-economic drivers on agriculture and food security at global and regional scales in 2050?
  2. What are the global and national economic implications of the adoption of climate friendly or climate-smart agricultural practices?
  3. Can larger-scale approaches – for example at landscape scale – increase the feasibility of plans that target emissions reductions while preserving economic development and increasing food security?

Background reading