The world is changing, perhaps more rapidly than we are currently willing to acknowledge. The growth of food demand, driven by a growing and richer global population, is creating a big pull to intensify agricultural production, at the same time as there is increasing competition for land for other purposes (e.g. roads, cities, biofuels, etc.). That the economic centre of mass is moving eastwards as Asia develops is also causing significant changes in global supply chains. The tighter linkage between fuel prices and agricultural input (and thus output) prices means that agricultural production is ever more susceptible to fluctuations in the energy markets. And finally – but it is a big finally – climate change, especially the increasing variability in the extremes of weather, is making the world ever more unpredictable. Even if a particular farmer is not impacted by weather extremes, others will be and the cumulative effect of perturbations to supply globally adds to the volatility of the market. The only things that are certain about the future are that it is uncertain and that it will not be very similar to the past.
Original post by Tim Benton (U. Leeds).
